Method and assumptions
Use a completed cohort whenever possible. Mixing active trials with completed trials can make conversion look artificially low or high.
Trial conversion = converted trials ÷ completed trials. Projected MRR = converted trials × monthly price.
Worked scenario
Define one trial-start cohort and wait until every member has had the same conversion window. Count activation, paid conversion and cancellation separately. Compare trials by acquisition source and product path, and use a later observation date to measure whether converted accounts remain paying.
How to interpret the result
Trial-to-paid rate measures only one funnel transition. It can rise when qualification improves or when low-intent volume falls, so total new customers and acquisition cost provide context. Activation rate helps diagnose product experience, while retained conversion shows whether the trial attracted suitable users.
Input reference
- Currency
- Example default: USD
- Completed trials
- Example default: 1000
- Converted paid customers
- Example default: 180
- Monthly price
- Example default: 99
- Average first-month extra revenue
- Example default: 5
Common mistakes
- Comparing cohorts before their conversion windows close.
- Changing the definition of trial activation.
- Optimizing conversion without checking retained revenue.
Before using the result
- Use a fixed cohort, window and conversion event.
- Segment by source, plan and activation behavior.
- Measure retention after the first paid period.
Questions to check before deciding
Should active trials be included?
Use completed trials for a stable cohort conversion rate.
Does this include annual plans?
Convert annual contracts to a monthly-equivalent value before using the price input.
Independent planning calculator. Not financial, tax, legal or investment advice.